However, as the Federal Reserve Bank started using its economic power to fight back against inflation, which has reached a forty-year high, by increasing interest rates, the Utah housing market is beginning to show signs of a significant slowing down. Average income: 74197. The slate of speakers all sought to help bring clarity to a market that they said has largely been fraught with volatility and uncertainty as mortgage rates, some days hovering around 7%, have squeezed buyers and have brought a rapid end to what had been over two years of a blazing hot market. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. According to the Utah real estate market predictions from industry experts, there will be an influx of sellers in the state given the present condition of not having enough supply to meet the markets unprecedented growth. The median sale price for a house in West Valley City was $436,500 in September 2022, representing a 2.9% increase in year-over-year comparisons. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. In Utah, because of its continued strong job economy, experts predict the states housing market to experience some turbulence in 2023 but come out strong next year. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. NerdWallet reports that 2022 will see a low end of 3,4% according to Fannie Mae and will reach 4% by the end of the year as predicted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. This would place . For renters, these relentless price increases mean the path to ownership has narrowed even further. But high mortgage rates, some weeks hovering over 7%, did trigger a type of collapse in demand and sales. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. Nationwide, an increasing number of firms have downgraded their forecasts and predict U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023, Fortune has reported. So youll find the deals with the homebuilders, but youre not going to find the deals on (existing) homes, Eskic said. Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. Each year, the Sal. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. A realty sign at a property in the Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. But, we had a recession then, Dejan, we had a recession. It was a year in which a boiling hot housing market saw historic deterioration, as Fortune put it. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. Sign up now for a free 7-day trial and get 15% off on your subscription. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. And to Branca, that meant home ownership became completely inaccessible.. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. The states unemployment rate in November was 2.2%. The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . Focus on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the past 10, 5, or even 2 years! As of November, that figure was down to $569,000 14% lower than the May peak but still 4% higher than in November of 2021. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. The party was over. With the market starting to change, weve seen a decrease of 25.3% in sales in the Utah housing market, and 49% of homes had price drops. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. 2022 housing market forecast I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. Difference Since Last Month -$ 20,090 ( -3.7%) Key Takeaway The list price of homes in Saint George has decreased by 3.7% since December. Thats when buyers found their affordability ceiling. The median sale price was up 5.6% in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but the number of homes sold dropped 26.7%. The states economy is still performing very well, but this is not enough to push the housing market forward at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. Even as mortgage rates in recent weeks have ticked down slightly, economists are expecting higher rates to continue to dampen sales throughout 2023. If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. Even a two-year period will historically yield an increase in equity in the Utah housing market. According to Realtor.com data, the current median days listed in Utah is 52, the highest since the onset of the pandemic, but still a ways away from pre-pandemic figures. The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. This data does not reflect actual moves. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. The music stopped. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. Its important to keep a tab on the housing market and current trends. Well, perhaps I cantAlthough based on facts, I believe I can. Some investors flip houses, others wholesale them. On average, homes in Cache County sell after 57 days on the market compared to 12 days last year. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. The 2022 for-sale home supply is expected to begin recovering from recent declines, but millennial demand will likely keep supply limited through at least 2025. Yes! Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. All rights reserved. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022 , he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the. If you are looking to purchase your primary residence in todays market, then yes, the time to buy is today! This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Utah is expected to continue its rapid growth and will need to see an increase in available housing to accommodate the incoming population. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. Utah Housing Market Trends Q4 2022 According to the report by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner, the Utah real estate market has experienced a slowdown in the pace of job growth, with the state adding 43,300 jobs over the past 12 months at an annual rate of 2.6%. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. With nearly 2,000 miles of shoreline, Lake Powell possesses endless outdoor adventures. Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. Hang in there. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. Median home price: $533,500 a 5.6% Y.o.Y. Heres why, Buying a house? However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. Utah Housing Market Forecast, What To Look For In 2022 The housing market in 2021 made the "American dream" feel more and more out of reach for a lot of people. Utah will see minor year-over-year price declines in the first and second quarter of 2023, but prices will begin to stabilize by the third and fourth quarter, he said. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. However, they expect the market to enter a correction that will persist into 2023 thanks to the Federal Reserves aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. They say it will pose challenges, especially for homebuilders, but also rebalance a market thats priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home. The average annual profit of property investment was: 10.098% in 2018; . Statewide, housing . Search and compare real estate agents near you. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. The surge in home prices across the country resulted in many thinking homes were sold for more than theyre worth. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. They can step back and wait for the dust to settle., As a result, Wood predicted price declines that have been tumbling since May will stabilize by the third quarter of 2023, and the annual median sales price for 2023 will likely be within a few percentage points one way or another of 2022., Worst case scenario, Wood added, prices down about 5%; best case scenario, prices equal to 2022.. Salt Lake Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2032: August 2032: Open: 666286: Min: 635950: Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities Weve been spoiled with historically low mortgage rates over the past decade. This would place . Just remember, pricing has never been more critical than right now. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. TREC:Info About Brokerage Services,Consumer Protection Notice. They can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive.. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200. The number of days on the market had also increased sharply at 39 median D.o.M., compared to 15 the previous year, further indicating that the days when properties were being snatched off the market as soon as they were listed are long gone. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Book an appointment today. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. The Utah housing market benefits from the states attractivity, which features a strong economy and job market. In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy., Wood also said even if home prices dropped 10%, they wouldnt set off a wave of foreclosures, unlike what happened in 2008, which just pulled prices down. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Their goal is mainly to make a profit from investing in real estate but each of them has different approaches and strategies to achieve their goals. Inflation is outpacing most salaries, decreasing the value of the dollar. By comparison, interest rates 20 years ago averaged between 6%-7%, and 1981 experienced interest rates of 16%. Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. Imagine earning over $100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able to swing it. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? 2024 will be better, Jim Wood, one of Utahs leading housing experts, told the crowd gathered at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors 2023 housing forecast Friday. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. 28.7% of homes sold above the asking price, reaching a median sale price of $525,000, which represents a 7.8% increase in the past year. This dataset excludes all rentals data. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. increase. Theyre both confident Utahs job market is strong enough to avoid sweeping foreclosures and that housing demand will continue due to the states rapid growth and pervasive home shortage. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Wood, the Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, detailed his forecast report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, explaining why he still feels optimistic for real estate even if 2023 wont be a year of celebration.. I just felt totally iced out, Branca said. Utah Housing Market Overview What is the housing market like right now? The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. Yes! 30-year mortgage rate: 5.59000%. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. Neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy tumbling into the Great Recession. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Thank you for registering with FastExpert. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. Peak-to-trough, with thepeak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Colorado Data In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. Should You Invest in the Phoenix Housing Market in 2020? The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! With the low amount of inventory, sellers will continue to enjoy multiple offers, with some buyers willing to fork over way above market price to beat out other potential buyers. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. Already have a FastExpert account? Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. Compass announced a third round of layoffs on Thursday, according to The Real Deal. Market time rose 22 days from the third quarter of 2022. (Now) its resetting, its balancing, its coming down.. Here's your Official 2022 Utah housing Market Forecast in Salt Lake City. Property prices still remain high. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. Joining Good Morning Utah to share what to expect for Utah's housing market for 2022 is Ryan Kirkham with Summit Sotheby's and Utah realestate.com. For the average mortgage, the difference translates into approximately a $1000 difference for a similar home, representing tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. 2.1 months of housing inventory. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. CA License #01950016. Browse through the largest marketplace of Real Estate professionals, We have an in-house team that will guide you through the process. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. When we look at just how much weve peaked earlier this year, I think well start seeing negative year-over-year readings late winter, early spring, Eskic said. Inventory levels have skyrocketed, with the average number of homes on the market up a remarkable 248% from the same period in 2021. Thats a good thing, because they were overpriced anyway, right? Perry said. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Affirming this projection, Wood asserts . Home prices skyrocket amid early pandemic months due to bidding wars and a shortage of active listings. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. The Ha read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. Making better-informed Real estate nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy into... 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